Technology predictions for government
We publish predictions about technology over the next ten years. They show which plans for power, minerals, chips, encryption and clean technology are likely to run late, and the dates to plan around. Each one ends with what it means for government.
See which plans are likely to run late, and the dates to plan around.
Which plans are likely to run late
Power connections, chip factories, mines and new reactors take years to build. Our predictions say which plans are likely to slip and by when. They include "Power shortages will hold back AI data centres to 2028", "Small reactors and fusion will sell under 100 MW of power in the West before 2030", "China will keep export licences on key minerals to 2029" and "Clean power keeps growing, but green fuels and carbon removal stop at legal quotas" (end of 2029).
to build new transmission lines
in advanced economies
Planning question: does the infrastructure timetable fit the deployment timetable?
What each prediction means for government
Every prediction ends with what it means for government, as well as for investors, defence and businesses. Each one also shows what most people think and who says so, sometimes a minister, regulator or official body. For example, most people expect large organisations can plan their switch to quantum-safe encryption around the 2035 dates in NIST and NCSC guidance. Our prediction is "Quantum computers will threaten encryption before they beat ordinary computers at paid work", and we find out by the end of 2030.
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Entered into force
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Initial prohibitions and AI literacy rules
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Governance and GPAI obligations
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General application
Exceptions and later high-risk deadlines remain.
A record of where we changed our mind
We re-checked our twenty open forecasts. We dropped two and are less sure of seven. We are more sure of eight, and three are unchanged.
- Dropped
- 2
- We are less sure
- 7
- We are more sure
- 8
- No change
- 3
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We changed our mind
Humanoid robots
We expected more than 10,000 humanoid robots from Tesla, Figure, Agility and Apptronik to be working in industrial settings by the end of 2027, enough to make them a meaningful industrial tool.
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We changed our mind
Reusable launch vehicles
We expected reusable rockets to be in wide, normal use by the end of 2027, with SpaceX joined by real competitors as New Glenn, Rocket Lab's Neutron and Stoke's Nova flew and reused their boosters.
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We are more sure
Critical minerals supply chains
We expected critical minerals to be a regular business-press subject by early to mid 2027, as China's export controls and the US response kept making news.
What we think now about each one is in the app. None of the predictions has reached its date yet. When a date arrives, a person checks what happened and records it beside the prediction.
Research on 235 technologies
Each technology has our current view, with the companies and people involved. The predictions rest on these pages. Choose the technologies you follow and we show you the latest news on them, and whether it supports or counts against each prediction.
CanaryIQ public catalogue
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You get predictions about where technology is heading over the next ten years, each with what it means for government. You also get research on 235 technologies with the companies and people involved, the risks to them, and the latest news on the technologies you follow.
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From public and licensed sources, such as patents, research papers, company filings, government budgets and policy documents, and the news.
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A person checks what happened and records it beside the prediction. None of them has reached its date yet. The first dates are at the end of 2028.