Technology predictions for defence planners
Our predictions cover the supply of chips, minerals, drones, missiles, satellites and encryption. Each one says what most people think, what we think, what it means for defence, and the date it will be settled.
See what is likely to happen to the things defence depends on, and by when.
Predictions about chips, minerals, drones, missiles, satellites and encryption
Our predictions about defence include "The US will buy masses of cheap drones but still spend more on missiles" (end of March 2029), "China will keep export licences on key minerals to 2029", "The most advanced chips will still be made by TSMC in Taiwan at the end of 2029", "SpaceX will still run most working satellites in 2029" and "Quantum computers will threaten encryption before they beat ordinary computers at paid work" (end of 2030). Each one has a date when it will be settled.
EUV lithography
The wavelength used
by ASML’s EUV systems
The tools that print intricate chip layers sit underneath the AI hardware story.
What each prediction means for defence, and the risks to watch
Every prediction ends with what it means for defence, as well as for investors, government and businesses. You also get the risks we follow, with how likely each one is and what it would hit. They include China limiting exports of rare earths and other minerals, GPS signals being jammed or faked, and undersea internet cables being cut.
Our public catalogue of 20 September 2026 scored quantum computing high on attention and low on maturity. Both measures use a 0–1 scale.
Research on the technologies and the companies that make them
We cover 235 technologies, each with our current view and the companies and people involved. Use it to see who makes the chips, drones, satellites and encryption your plans rely on. Choose the technologies you follow and we show you the latest news on them, and whether it supports or counts against each prediction.
CanaryIQ public catalogue
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You get predictions about where technology is heading over the next ten years, each with what it means for defence. You also get research on 235 technologies with the companies and people involved, the risks to them, and the latest news on the technologies you follow.
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From public and licensed sources, such as patents, research papers, company filings, government budgets and policy documents, and the news.
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Our view runs ten years ahead. Each prediction has a nearer date when it will be settled, usually two to four years out.