AI and power
Power shortages will hold back AI data centres to 2028
- We find out
- End of 2028
- How sure we are
- Fairly sure
November 2026
Where technology is heading over the next ten years
We track 235 technologies and publish what we expect to happen in AI, chips, energy, defence and space, with dates you can check. We update the predictions every month.
Or book a 30-minute demoSix of our predictions
Each one shows what most people expect, who says so, and the date it will be settled. Subscribers also get our view, our reasons and what would change our mind.
AI chip prices and profits
Memory makers will earn higher margins than Nvidia through 2028
- We find out
- End of 2028
- How sure we are
- Fairly sure
What most people think
Nvidia's margin bottoms out at 71–72% and recovers to 72–73% in its 2028 financial year as it raises its own prices. Prices for DRAM, the main type of computer memory, peak in 2027 and roughly halve in 2028 as new supply arrives.
Who says this: Colette Kress, Nvidia's chief financial officer, in August 2026 guidance; Bernstein, in a DRAM price forecast reported in July 2026
Where chips are made
The most advanced chips will still be made by TSMC in Taiwan at the end of 2029
- We find out
- End of 2029
- How sure we are
- Very sure
What most people think
Subsidies and tariffs will move a large share of the most advanced chipmaking to the US by the end of the decade. Intel will become a credible second manufacturer of AI chips for other companies. China will have its own advanced lithography machines, which print chip patterns, by 2030.
Who says this: US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick (Sept 2025); Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan; Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (All-In podcast, Sept 2026); SIA/BCG 2024 US capacity forecast
Critical minerals
China will keep export licences on key minerals to 2029
- We find out
- End of 2029
- How sure we are
- Very sure
What most people think
China's hold over these minerals is temporary. The general licences agreed in the 2025 trade truce remove the controls in practice. The Western mines, refineries and magnet plants funded since 2025 end the reliance on China within about two years.
Who says this: The White House, fact sheet of 1 November 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ("12 to 24 months"), Financial Times interview, 31 October 2025, as reported
Defence procurement
The US will buy masses of cheap drones but still spend more on missiles
- We find out
- End of March 2029
- How sure we are
- Fairly sure
What most people think
Cheap drones, and the cheap weapons that shoot them down, will replace expensive missiles and aircraft in Western defence budgets. Newer defence companies will take programme money from the big contractors. The Pentagon's $54.6 billion FY2027 request for drones and autonomy points that way.
Who says this: Pete Hegseth (July 2025 drone memo), former Army Secretary Dan Driscoll (goal of one million drones), and the Pentagon's FY2027 DAWG budget request
Quantum and encryption
Quantum computers will threaten encryption before they beat ordinary computers at paid work
- We find out
- End of 2030
- How sure we are
- Very sure
What most people think
Quantum computers will have commercial uses within this decade, and the danger to encryption is further off. Large organisations can therefore plan their switch to quantum-safe encryption around the 2035 completion dates in NIST and NCSC guidance.
Who says this: IBM (advantage by 2026, its Starling machine in 2029), Google's Hartmut Neven, McKinsey's Quantum Technology Monitor, and NIST and NCSC with their 2035 dates
Robots and self-driving
Humanoid robots will sell over 100,000 a year, but few will do paid factory work
- We find out
- End of 2028
- How sure we are
- Fairly sure
What most people think
Humanoid robots will work in factories at scale by 2028. Tesla will sell its Optimus robot to other companies from late 2027, from a line built to make a million a year. Hyundai is building capacity for 30,000 robots a year, and Agility's full sales pipeline points to about 28,000 robots by 2030.
Who says this: Elon Musk (Tesla earnings call), Hyundai and Boston Dynamics (CES 2026), Agility Robotics (merger prospectus), UBTech (10,000-robot capacity target for 2027)
What changed this month
We re-checked our twenty open forecasts. We dropped two and are less sure of seven. We are more sure of eight, and three are unchanged.
- Dropped
- 2
- We are less sure
- 7
- We are more sure
- 8
- No change
- 3
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We changed our mind
Humanoid robots
We expected more than 10,000 humanoid robots from Tesla, Figure, Agility and Apptronik to be working in industrial settings by the end of 2027, enough to make them a meaningful industrial tool.
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We changed our mind
Reusable launch vehicles
We expected reusable rockets to be in wide, normal use by the end of 2027, with SpaceX joined by real competitors as New Glenn, Rocket Lab's Neutron and Stoke's Nova flew and reused their boosters.
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We are less sure
Solid-state batteries
We expected solid-state batteries to get far more attention than their real progress justified by late 2027, because Toyota, VW or BMW would be close to selling the first cars that use them.
Subscribers can read what we think now about each one. None of the predictions has reached its date yet.
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Predictions
Our predictions, each with a date. For each one: what most people think, what we think and why, what we expect to see first, what would change our mind, and what it means for investors, defence, government and businesses.
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Past forecasts
Every forecast we have made, including the ones we got wrong, with what we said at the time and what we think now.
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Research on 235 technologies
Our current view on each technology, with the companies and people involved. The predictions rest on these pages.
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Risks
Things that could go wrong, how likely each one is, and what it would hit. Some are already happening.
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The latest news
News on the technologies you follow, and whether it supports or counts against each prediction.
Who it is for
Each prediction says what it means for investors, defence, government and businesses.
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Investors
Which companies and countries will keep the profits, with dates to check your positions against.
CanaryIQ for investors -
Defence
What will happen to the supply of chips, minerals, drones, missiles and satellites, and when.
CanaryIQ for defence -
Government
Which plans for power, minerals, chips and encryption are likely to run late, and by how long.
CanaryIQ for government -
Businesses
What will reach your market and when, so you can plan spending, suppliers and hiring.
CanaryIQ for leadership teams
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