Robotic process automation (RPA)
RPA is being disrupted by AI agents; the simple screen-scraping and rule-based automation that defined UiPath and Automation Anywhere is being replaced by LLM-powered alternatives.
Research snapshot · updated Apr 22, 2026
Core thesis
Traditional RPA (UiPath, Automation Anywhere) records and replays human actions on screens. It is brittle – it breaks when a UI changes. Modern AI agents (Claude, GPT-5, Gemini) understand intent, adapt to interface changes and handle unstructured data, so the screen-scraping moat is thin. The market is large and still growing, but the underlying technology is being commoditised by general-purpose AI; the incumbents survive by repositioning as the orchestration and governance layer for agents rather than as bot vendors.
State of the art (2026)
By mid-2026 the RPA category has folded into agentic automation. UiPath, a year into general availability of its agentic platform, swung to its first GAAP profit in its May 2026 quarter (~$418m revenue, ~$1.9bn ARR) and now sells itself as the orchestration and governance layer for AI agents rather than as a screen-scraping bot vendor; it has added UiPath for Coding Agents. ServiceNow, having closed its $2.85bn Moveworks buy in 2025, pushes Now Assist agents into IT, HR and finance, while Microsoft Copilot Studio, Salesforce Agentforce and SAP Joule bundle agents into incumbent suites. Classic deterministic bots persist in regulated, audited, air-gapped back offices where hallucination risk is unacceptable. The open question is margin: whether pure-plays defend pricing as hyperscalers give agents away.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
192 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
5 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
3 · 19
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Locked
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
5 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Robotic process automation (RPA) has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.