Electric aviation
The action has moved to eVTOL air taxis: Joby and Archer are in the final FAA certification stages with US launches due 2026-2027, while battery-electric fixed-wing stays range-capped near 500km.
Research snapshot · updated Jun 24, 2026
Core thesis
The live frontier is eVTOL air taxis, not battery-electric fixed-wing. Joby and Archer lead the US, both in final FAA certification stages with launches targeted in 2026–2027; Beta Technologies offers a nearer-term conventional-electric cargo path. Battery-electric fixed-wing stays range-bound near 500km: production aviation cells sit near 300 Wh/kg, with silicon-anode cells (Amprius) pushing past 400 Wh/kg. Regional hybrid-electric (Heart Aerospace ES-30, now certification-targeted around 2029) extends range further. Certification and economics, not raw physics, now pace the sector.
State of the art (2026)
The story has split. Battery-electric fixed-wing flight remains range-bound near 500km, but the live frontier is eVTOL air taxis. By mid-2026 Joby had cleared Stage 4 of the FAA five-stage type certification, with its certificate anticipated late 2026 and entry into service plausibly slipping to 2027; Archer closed Phase 3 with 100% means-of-compliance accepted and targets first passenger flights in 2026 under the White House eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, plus a UAE launch. Europe consolidated hard after Lilium and Volocopter went bankrupt across 2024-2025, leaving Joby, Archer and Beta as the US leaders. Production aviation cells sit near 300 Wh/kg; Amprius silicon-anode cells push past 400 Wh/kg. Certification, not physics, is now the pacing item.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
7 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
127 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
5 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
20 · 19
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Locked
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
5 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
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