Gallium and germanium
China still supplies ~98% of gallium and ~60% of germanium; its Dec 2024 ban-to-US was suspended to Nov 2026 under the Trump-Xi truce, so the dependency is unresolved, only paused.
Research snapshot · updated Jun 24, 2026
Core thesis
Gallium underpins GaN RF and power chips (5G, radar, AI-server PSUs, EV inverters) and GaAs wafers; germanium is essential to fibre optics, infrared optics and space solar cells. China runs ~99% of primary gallium and a clear majority of refined germanium. Beijing moved from July 2023 export licensing to a December 2024 outright ban on shipments to the US, then suspended that ban through 27 November 2026 under the November 2025 Trump-Xi truce - the military-end-user prohibition and licensing regime persist. Western recycling and byproduct recovery (Umicore, 5N Plus, Indium Corporation, MTM) can partially offset but cannot displace primary Chinese supply before 2028. A structural vulnerability for Western technology and defence, paused rather than resolved.
State of the art (2026)
The story in mid-2026 is de-escalation, not crisis. After Beijing imposed export licensing on gallium and germanium in July 2023 and a formal ban on shipments to the US in December 2024, the November 2025 Trump-Xi truce suspended that ban through 27 November 2026 - though the military-end-user prohibition and licensing regime persist. Prices have unwound from their peaks: the SMM gallium benchmark sits near $277/kg, while in-warehouse US germanium trades around $6,150/kg, far above Chinese domestic levels. Western capacity remains marginal - MTM Critical Metals' Texas recovery plant, 5N Plus, Indium Corporation and Umicore recycling, plus a restarting Kazakh line. None displaces Chinese dominance before 2028.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
5 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
129 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
4 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Locked
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
5 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
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