Technology thesis · Critical Materials
high conviction matureGallium and germanium
China still supplies ~98% of gallium and ~60% of germanium; its Dec 2024 ban-to-US was suspended to Nov 2026 under the Trump-Xi truce, so the dependency is unresolved, only paused.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Jun 24, 2026
The thesis
Core thesis
Gallium underpins GaN RF and power chips (5G, radar, AI-server PSUs, EV inverters) and GaAs wafers; germanium is essential to fibre optics, infrared optics and space solar cells. China runs ~99% of primary gallium and a clear majority of refined germanium. Beijing moved from July 2023 export licensing to a December 2024 outright ban on shipments to the US, then suspended that ban through 27 November 2026 under the November 2025 Trump-Xi truce - the military-end-user prohibition and licensing regime persist. Western recycling and byproduct recovery (Umicore, 5N Plus, Indium Corporation, MTM) can partially offset but cannot displace primary Chinese supply before 2028. A structural vulnerability for Western technology and defence, paused rather than resolved.
State of the art (2026)
The story in mid-2026 is de-escalation, not crisis. After Beijing imposed export licensing on gallium and germanium in July 2023 and a formal ban on shipments to the US in December 2024, the November 2025 Trump-Xi truce suspended that ban through 27 November 2026 - though the military-end-user prohibition and licensing regime persist. Prices have unwound from their peaks: the SMM gallium benchmark sits near $277/kg, while in-warehouse US germanium trades around $6,150/kg, far above Chinese domestic levels. Western capacity remains marginal - MTM Critical Metals' Texas recovery plant, 5N Plus, Indium Corporation and Umicore recycling, plus a restarting Kazakh line. None displaces Chinese dominance before 2028.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Gallium and germanium has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.