Technology thesis · Critical Materials
high conviction matureCobalt supply chain
70% of cobalt comes from the DRC under conditions that create ESG risk; the industry is shifting to low-cobalt (NMC 811) and cobalt-free (LFP) chemistries.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Apr 22, 2026
The thesis
Core thesis
DRC produces 70%+ of global cobalt, with 15-20% from artisanal mines with child labour concerns. China (CATL, CMOC) controls 70% of cobalt refining. The industry response: shift to LFP (cobalt-free) and NMC 811 (reduced cobalt). This is working — cobalt demand growth is flattening even as EV sales surge. Mark Bristow (Barrick Gold) advocates responsible DRC sourcing.
State of the art (2026)
The defining fact of 2026 is reversal: after a February 2025 export ban, the DRC replaced it in October 2025 with quotas capping 2026–2027 exports at 96,600 tonnes a year (roughly half of 2024), including a 9,600-tonne strategic reserve. Prices ran from near $21,000 a tonne in early 2025 to above $56,000 by mid-2026. Kinshasa, not oversupply, now sets the price. CMOC and Glencore hold the largest DRC allocations; Indonesian by-product output (~67,500 tonnes MHP) cushions but cannot replace lost Congolese units. The structural counter-current persists – LFP nears 65% of new cells by 2029 and high-nickel cathodes trim cobalt per kWh – but demand still grew to roughly 219.6kt in 2026.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Cobalt supply chain has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.