Cobalt supply chain
70% of cobalt comes from the DRC under conditions that create ESG risk; the industry is shifting to low-cobalt (NMC 811) and cobalt-free (LFP) chemistries.
Research snapshot · updated Apr 22, 2026
Core thesis
DRC produces 70%+ of global cobalt, with 15-20% from artisanal mines with child labour concerns. China (CATL, CMOC) controls 70% of cobalt refining. The industry response: shift to LFP (cobalt-free) and NMC 811 (reduced cobalt). This is working — cobalt demand growth is flattening even as EV sales surge. Mark Bristow (Barrick Gold) advocates responsible DRC sourcing.
State of the art (2026)
The defining fact of 2026 is reversal: after a February 2025 export ban, the DRC replaced it in October 2025 with quotas capping 2026–2027 exports at 96,600 tonnes a year (roughly half of 2024), including a 9,600-tonne strategic reserve. Prices ran from near $21,000 a tonne in early 2025 to above $56,000 by mid-2026. Kinshasa, not oversupply, now sets the price. CMOC and Glencore hold the largest DRC allocations; Indonesian by-product output (~67,500 tonnes MHP) cushions but cannot replace lost Congolese units. The structural counter-current persists – LFP nears 65% of new cells by 2029 and high-nickel cathodes trim cobalt per kWh – but demand still grew to roughly 219.6kt in 2026.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
7 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
131 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
3 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Locked
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
5 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
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