Antimony supply chain

China weaponised antimony; the export-ban suspension expires 27 November 2026

China imposed sequential export controls on antimony through 2024 (14 August: licensing required, 15 September: dual-use license requirement, 3 December: full prohibition to US military users). Prices spiked from ~$14k/tonne to ~$60k/tonne in twelve months. China then suspended the export ban on antimony (alongside gallium and germanium) to the United States in a separate trade-truce negotiation; the suspension expires on 27 November 2026. That deadline is the single highest-leverage event in the category - if the suspension is renewed, Chinese material continues to flow (at prices set by China, in volumes set by China); if it expires without renewal, the West reverts to the Dec 2024 prohibition framework while Western supply is still 18-30 months from full production. The asymmetry between Chinese control and Western response timing is the structural fact that defines the category in 2026-2027.

State of the art (2026)

Antimony in mid-2026 is a controlled-supply commodity, not a free market. China still dominates mining and refining, and the December 2024 prohibition framework sits suspended only to 27 November 2026 under licensing, with the military-end-user ban still in force. Western supply is moving but not yet load-bearing. EXIM approved a $2.9B senior loan for Perpetua Resources Stibnite (Idaho) in May 2026; after a 29 May court ruling denied an injunction, Perpetua is advancing 2026 field-season construction toward 2029 operations. United States Antimony began commissioning its expanded Thompson Falls (Montana) smelter in May 2026. Prices remain multiples above the pre-2024 baseline. The structural balance does not shift until 2027-2029.

Real Western supply is 2027-2029, not 2026 - two projects matter

Two assets carry essentially all of the credible Western supply response. Perpetua Resources broke ground at the Stibnite Gold-Antimony Project (Idaho) in October 2025 with $59M+ in DoD Defense Production Act funding. In May 2026 the US Export-Import Bank unanimously approved a $2.9B senior secured loan (upgraded from the $2.7B proposal advanced to Congressional notice in March 2026); combined with the companys cash position the financing covers the full initial construction cost, with disbursement subject to documentation expected in H2 2026. Stibnite is targeted to supply up to 35% of US antimony demand in its first six years, with operations around 2029. United States Antimony Corp (USAC) operates the only US smelter and holds a Defense Logistics Agency IDIQ contract up to $245M (2026 orders already booked); its newly built Thompson Falls, Montana smelter began commissioning in May 2026 toward 400-500 tonnes/month finished-product capacity, plus a $27M DPA Title III award for hydrometallurgical capacity. Both projects are real but neither moves the structural balance until 2027-2029.

Demand structure means the price floor stays well above pre-2024

Even with Chinese supply flowing under the suspended-ban regime through November 2026, the underlying demand mix has structurally lifted the price floor. US defence spending on small-arms ammunition primers, tracer rounds, and night-vision optics is on its highest sustained ramp since the early 2000s. Flame-retardant antimony trioxide demand from electronics and battery casings remains structural. Liquid metal grid batteries (Ambri) are not yet at commercial scale but represent a forward demand tail for the late 2020s. As of June 2026 the metal trades around $52/kg - roughly triple the pre-2024 $15-18k/tonne baseline - having eased from the mid-2025 record near $60k/tonne but holding well above the historic range. Reverting to pre-2024 economics would require Chinese material at pre-2024 volumes AND Western defence-stockpile demand reverting, neither of which is on the horizon.