Technology thesis · Connectivity & Space
high conviction matureUndersea cable infrastructure
Undersea cables carry 99% of intercontinental data traffic; they are critical infrastructure increasingly vulnerable to sabotage, with Baltic Sea incidents escalating.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Apr 22, 2026
The thesis
Core thesis
400+ submarine cables carry 99% of intercontinental internet traffic. Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are now the largest cable owners, displacing traditional telecom. Baltic Sea cable cuts (2023-2025) demonstrated vulnerability to state-sponsored sabotage. NATO is increasing seabed protection. The concentration of landing stations creates chokepoint risk. Repair ships are scarce — a single cut can take weeks to fix.
State of the art (2026)
Hyperscalers now drive the subsea cable build, not telco consortia. Meta's Project Waterworth - announced February 2025, construction starting 2026 - will run beyond 50,000km with 24 fibre pairs, the longest system ever and Meta's first fully owned global cable. Google's America-India Connect adds three new US-India routes feeding its $15bn Indian AI build with Airtel. AI training traffic between continents is now a distinct demand category, pushing 2025-27 investment to its highest level in two decades. Security has gone state-level: NATO's Baltic Sentry has patrolled since January 2025 after roughly eleven Baltic cables were damaged; the EU's €347m February 2026 package added a Cable Security Toolbox and a Baltic rapid-repair pilot; the FCC's November 2025 order bars HMN Tech, Huawei and ZTE gear from US-landing cables.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
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Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Undersea cable infrastructure has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.