Augmented and virtual reality
The category is pivoting from headsets to AI smart glasses: Meta and EssilorLuxottica own the volume, Apple shelved Vision Pro 2 for glasses, and full consumer AR is still years out.
Research snapshot · updated Jun 24, 2026
State of the art (2026)
The centre of gravity has shifted decisively from headsets to AI smart glasses. EssilorLuxottica shipped over 7 million Meta AI glasses in 2025, and Meta added a $799 Ray-Ban Display (waveguide plus Neural Band) in September 2025 and $299 frames in June 2026. Samsungs Galaxy XR launched in October 2025 at $1,799 as the first Android XR headset; Apple refreshed Vision Pro with the M5 chip but shelved a true Vision Pro 2 to roughly 2028 and is pivoting to display-less AI glasses targeted at late 2027. Meta Reality Labs still lost $19.2bn in 2025. Full AR remains a prototype: Orion stays a 1,000-unit internal demo, with consumer-grade AR glasses not expected before 2027–28.
Core thesis
The category has split. The full-headset bet that defined 2021–2024 – Meta's metaverse spend and Apple's Vision Pro – has not produced mass consumer adoption: VR/MR headset shipments are falling and Apple shelved a true Vision Pro 2. The momentum has moved to AI smart glasses, where Meta and EssilorLuxottica own the volume and a glanceable display plus an on-face AI assistant, not an immersive headset, is the consumer wedge. Headsets retain durable value in proven enterprise and defence use cases – industrial training, remote expert assistance, surgical and military simulation. Full see-through AR at scale remains a prototype several years out.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
8 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
3 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
136 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
3 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
6 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Locked
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
5 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Augmented and virtual reality has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.