Technology thesis · Clean Energy
medium conviction emergingSustainable aviation fuel
SAF is the only near-term path to decarbonise long-haul aviation, yet 2025 output was ~0.6% of jet fuel and IATA cut its 2026 forecast on weak policy; EU mandates, not economics, hold the market up.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Jun 24, 2026
The thesis
State of the art (2026)
SAF remains the only near-term lever for long-haul aviation decarbonisation, but supply is badly lagging policy. IATA put 2025 output at 1.9 million tonnes (~0.6% of jet fuel) and cut its 2026 forecast to 2.4Mt (~0.8%), citing weak incentive support. HEFA from waste fats and oils still dominates; LanzaJet's Soperton plant became the first commercial ethanol-to-jet facility in November 2025, while e-fuel players (Twelve, Infinium, HIF Global) stay sub-commercial at $10-15/gallon. The EU ReFuelEU mandate (2% from January 2025, 6% in 2030, with a 1.2% e-fuel sub-mandate from 2030) is the firm demand floor; US Section 45Z credit uncertainty and feedstock scarcity are the binding supply-side risks.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Sustainable aviation fuel has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.