Technology thesis · Clean Energy
high conviction matureSolar photovoltaics
Solar PV is the cheapest electricity ever built and deployment keeps compounding, but China's ~80% grip on the supply chain is a dependency tariffs make costlier, not smaller.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Jun 24, 2026
The thesis
Core thesis
Solar PV is the cheapest source of new electricity in history (sub-$0.02/kWh in optimal locations) and global installations keep accelerating – the world added roughly 600 GW in 2025, pushing cumulative capacity towards 3 TW. But China's dominance is near-total: it holds roughly 80% of every value-chain step and installed close to 370 GW itself in 2025. JinkoSolar and LONGi co-lead module shipments, yet a brutal multi-year price war has crushed manufacturer margins across the board. US/EU tariffs raise installation costs, but – unlike the 2023 picture – they have now catalysed real domestic capacity: US module nameplate has passed ~70 GW. The next leap, perovskite-silicon tandems at ~35% lab efficiency, is led by China (LONGi, JinkoSolar), with Oxford PV the main Western contender.
State of the art (2026)
Solar PV is now the cheapest electricity source ever built, and scale keeps compounding: 2025 added roughly 698 GW (16% growth), pushing cumulative capacity towards 3 TW, with China alone installing about 315 GW. TOPCon has displaced PERC as the mainstream cell, while perovskite-silicon tandems set successive records – LONGi at 34.85% in April 2025 and JinkoSolar at 34.82% in June 2026 – though commercial tandem modules remain pre-volume. The defining tension is supply-chain concentration: China holds roughly 80% of every value-chain step, Tier-1 modules trade near $0.09/W FOB, and structural overcapacity persists. US-delivered modules sit at $0.27–0.32/W as tariffs and a 50 GW-plus domestic build-out reprice the Western market.
Perovskite tandem: the next efficiency revolution
Perovskite-silicon tandem cells now set records around 35% – LONGi at 34.85% (April 2025) and JinkoSolar at 34.82% (June 2026, its 33rd certified record) – versus roughly 24% for the best commercial silicon. LONGi's flexible tandem work was named one of China's top-10 scientific advances. The big Chinese makers (LONGi, JinkoSolar, Trina) target volume tandem production around 2027. Oxford PV is the Western leader and has actually been first to ship commercial tandem modules (from late 2024, ~25% module efficiency), with mass production planned for 2027; the open question is 25-year-grade durability, not whether the cell can be built. The West's edge is here, in tandem, not in re-competing on commodity silicon – but China leads on cell efficiency.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
Comparable wave
The historical analogue on the S-curve
Common mistakes
What the market gets wrong right now
The rest is inside
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Solar photovoltaics has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.