Technology thesis · Clean Energy
low conviction conceptOcean carbon removal
Ocean CDR is the highest-cost, most MRV-constrained removal pathway. After Running Tide wound down in June 2024, ocean alkalinity enhancement survives: Planetary, Ebb and Equatic now ship verified credits on offtakes running to 2030.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Jun 24, 2026
The thesis
OAE + electrochemical approaches survive Running Tide wind-down
Ebb Carbon + Planetary Technologies + Captura + Equatic continue with Stripe + Frontier + Microsoft commitments. Electrochemical hydrogen + OAE coproduct (Equatic Boeing partnership) has dual revenue stream. Captura demonstrated technology validation, scaling. These approaches differentiated from macroalgae by closer-to-source carbon flux + tighter MRV.
State of the art (2026)
Ocean CDR crossed from research to delivery in late 2025. Planetary Technologies issued the first independently verified ocean alkalinity (OAE) credits – 625.6 tonnes from its Halifax Tufts Cove site under Isometric's first-of-its-kind OAE protocol – bought by Stripe, Shopify and British Airways, then signed a 31.3m-dollar, 115,211-tonne Frontier offtake running through 2030. Ebb Carbon holds a Microsoft deal for up to 350,000 tonnes and added Google in December 2025, while Equatic builds its 3,650 t/yr Equatic-1 plant in Singapore plus a roughly 109,500 t/yr North American facility. Electrochemical and alkalinity routes now dominate after macroalgae sinking collapsed with Running Tide's June 2024 wind-down; credible MRV, not engineering capacity, still sets the pace, and costs remain 300–1,000 dollars per tonne.
Equatic Quebec commercial plant is the scale proof point
Equatics roughly 109,500 tCO2/yr North American plant in Quebec (with Deep Sky) is the commercial-scale proof point after Equatic-1 Singapore went live in Q1 2026. Validates electrochemical + OAE + hydrogen co-product economics; success unlocks scale + follow-on offtake, failure compresses the commercial pathway.
MRV methodology development + NOAA + EU regulatory framework are gating events
Ocean carbon flux MRV uniquely hard (2-7 year ocean cycle, additionality uncertain). Verra + Gold Standard + Puro.earth methodologies + NOAA + EPA + EU regulatory framework 2027-2028. Methodology standardisation enables voluntary market scale; failure caps commitments.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
5 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Ocean carbon removal has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.