Technology thesis · Clean Energy
low conviction emergingCarbon capture and storage
CCS works and policy now underwrites it, but value accrues to whoever owns CO2 storage and pipelines; point-source capture is bankable near $85/t 45Q while DAC stays a 2030s bet at $400-600/t.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Jun 24, 2026
The thesis
State of the art (2026)
CCS has moved from pilots to financed infrastructure. Northern Lights (Equinor/Shell/TotalEnergies) shipped its first CO2 from Heidelberg Materials Brevik in 2025 and took Phase 2 FID in March 2025, lifting capacity toward 5 Mt/yr by 2028. In the UK, the East Coast Cluster and HyNet reached financial close and are now in construction for 2028 start-up. US policy firmed up: the July 2025 reconciliation act preserved 45Q at $85/t for point-source and $180/t for DAC, with EOR and storage now at parity. Economics still split sharply - point-source capture is roughly $50-120/t and bankable, while direct air capture stays $400-600/t, with Occidental Stratos in late commissioning. The durable moat is storage geology, Class VI permits and CO2 pipelines, not capture chemistry.
Core thesis
Value in CCS accrues to whoever owns CO2 storage geology, Class VI permits and pipelines, not to capture chemistry. Point-source capture (cement, steel, gas) is bankable near $50-120/t and now underwritten by 45Q at $85/t for storage. Direct air capture stays a 2030s bet at $400-600/t and competes with AI data centres for the same clean power, which pays more. The bankable play is storage and transport infrastructure with long-term emitter offtake; pure capture-tech vendors without storage rights are the weakest link.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Carbon capture and storage has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.